I’m sure that billions of words worldwide have been written on the latest invasion of the by the Israeli military of the Gaza Strip where 1.4m people live in just 139 sqm [1] (~10,000 people/sqm, not much less than London’s 12,000 people/sqm [2]), and although the actions of this rogue state infuriate and deeply sadden me, there’s no point adding yet more moral obloquy and outrage to what’s already out there, produced by folk who write far better than myself. Only the most die-hard fans of Israel can unequivocally defend the latest massacres – despite the Israeli embargo on journalists entering the Strip, plenty enough photos and footage of dead children are coming out of the place to fuel righteous outrage worldwide. Dead children hit a hardwired spot in the vast majority of human beings that no amount of rationalisation can overrule – military and political ‘rationality’ will never trump killed children, which is as it should be, as any society that puts military logic above human life is well on the way to being inhuman. So it’s hardly surprising that the vast majority of comment is, to put it mildly, critical of Israel’s actions.
One thing, though, is very clear indeed. The Israeli State doesn’t give a shit what the world thinks, and in the Middle East can do what it wants to who it wants when it wants, with complete impunity. Israel is the Millwall FC of the Middle East: “no-one likes us, and we don’t care”. With one very important exception: the USA. The only reason Israel can do what it does is that it has the unconditional support, nay encouragement, of the USA, which provides it with $2.4 billion in military aid every year[3], and owns half of its foreign debt [4].
The reason for US support is simple: Israel is its client, albeit an occasionally truculent one, in the most important oil-producing region in the world. Israel serves to extend US geopolitical hegemony to the Middle East, and by being smack in the middle of the region perfectly divides the region into ineffective dysfunctional States. To use a Chess analogy, Israel is a queen placed on the enemy back ranks, capable of causing absolute havoc and attacking any and all enemy pieces. Worse, the opposition’s queen was captured decades ago, after the destruction of Abdul Nasser’s Egypt and the death of pan-Arabism, and the other pieces are forever getting in each other’s way and lack any movement.
As with all analogies, of course, this one breaks down, as Israel needs constant funding and support from the US to survive, without which the queen would be demoted to a minor piece and would very rapidly have to come to terms with the ‘enemy’. US support has been constant and unwavering since 1948, and it’s arguably stronger now than ever – there’s no question that the Israeli regime ran the Gaza invasion plans past the outgoing Bush regime before acting, as not only would Israel have never dared to act so massively without at least tacit (and likely, behind closed doors, explicit) US permission [5], but the US would have made some protest, however equivocal, against the invasion given the worldwide condemnation of it.
So the question is: will the US continue to give unconditional political, military and economic backing to its client State? On the face of it, the simple answer to that question is ‘yes’, at least in the short to medium term – the US president-in-waiting Obama has already declared his strong support for Israel [6], and the US imperial adventure in Iraq shows no sign of immediate failure. In the longer term, though, two things are clear:
1. The US will fade seriously as an imperial power as its economy collapses. It’s already retreating from much of the world under competition from the EU and China, and even in its “own backyard”, South America, Left-wing governments have emerged and are giving Uncle Sam the finger, a situation inconceivable during the Cold War. US economic decline means that it’s having to pick and choose its imperial adventures, going for those that seem to deliver the most buck for bang, hence the war of plunder in Iraq which has nevertheless turned out to be rather less profitable than anticipated. This economic decline will accelerate markedly when, not if, the dollar loses its status as a reserve currency and the US trade deficit comes home to roost
2. Oil will run out. The (in)famous Peak Oil [7] is forecast variously to occur within one or more decades, with many arguing that the peak oil point has already been passed, and economically-extractable oil will surely be extremely scarce by the middle of the 21st Century. Maintaining imperial hegemony in the Middle East is very costly for the US, but up to now has been worth it because the returns outweigh outlay: put simply, imperialism in the Middle East generates a healthy profit. As oil becomes scarcer that profit margin will shrink, and must perforce reach a point where its not worth the imperial candle, particularly as the empire itself is shrinking rapidly (see 1). When that happens, Israel will cease to be a prized US asset in an oil-rich region, and will instead become an increasing liability in the desert.
It’s plain, then, that in the long term Israel will be abandoned by its sponsor and godfather, and will have to start getting on with its regional neighbours and making new friends in the world. The trouble is, memories are long and blood grievances can span generations, and there’s no question that Israel is seriously pissing off just about everybody these days. It pisses on its neighbours, it ignores the EU, and gives the finger to the UN. Now that apartheid South Africa is dead and buried, Israel has no friends in the world other than the US and its 51st State, the UK. I hope, for the sake of those living in Israel, Jew and Arab alike, that far-sighted thinkers in Israel realise this and are making plans for a kinder, gentler Israel that will be able to make friends, and not blood enemies as it’s done up to now, because come the fall of the US empire Israel will otherwise find itself hated, alone and vulnerable, and an awful revenge may be wrongfully wreaked on its citizens by those with vendetta in their hearts.
For its own sake, and the sake of its citizens, the rogue State needs to quit being a psychopathic terrorist and become a constructive social entity, and needs to do this soon. There was a time when Israel was admired by many on the Left for its kibbutzim, socialism and progressiveness, and it’s not impossible for it to return to that state.
[1] Wikipedia entry on the Gaza Strip, Demographics section.
[2] Wikipedia entry on London, Demography section.
[3] Bush pledges to increase US funding to Israel, ynetnews.com, 20/6/07
[4] CIA World Factbook: Israel, Economy section.
[5] “US tacitly backs Israeli offensive”, BBC News online, 29/12/08
[6] “Obama pledges support for Israel”, BBC News online, 4/6/08
[7] There’s a very detailed analysis of the Peak Oil issue in “Peak Oil Overview” on The Oil Drum, a website devoted to energy issues. Written in June 2008, the analysis doesn’t come up with a date for ‘peak oil’, which is a slippery concept depending on many factors, including price, affordability, extraction technologies, reserve estimates, environmental impact, and more, but does show that liquid oil production in the major oil-producing nations has already peaked.